Ngành Bán lẻ | Báo cáo kênh phân phối và bán lẻ Việt Nam

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  Việt Nam được coi là một trong những thị trường hấp dẫn nhất đối với các nhà đầu tư nước ngoài với GDP tăng đều đặn và đầu tư trực tiếp nước ngoài đang bùng nổ, một mô hình được dự báo sẽ ổn định trong những năm tới. GDP danh nghĩa năm 2018 ước tính đạt 208,1 tỷ euro, ghi nhận tốc độ tăng trưởng danh nghĩa là 6,7%. GDP danh nghĩa của đất nước được dự báo sẽ đạt mức 248,8 tỷ euro vào năm 2020. Kể từ khi Việt Nam gia nhập WTO và cho phép các nhà bán lẻ 100% vốn nước ngoài, thị trường bán lẻ của đất nước ngày càng trở nên sinh lợi. Bán lẻ truyền thống sẽ vẫn là kênh bán lẻ thống trị của Việt Nam trong tương lai gần, hiện chiếm 68% lượng bán lẻ thị trường. Tuy nhiên, đất nước này đang chứng kiến ​​sự thay đổi từ bán lẻ truyền thống sang các nhà bán lẻ hiện đại như cửa hàng tiện lợi, siêu thị / đại siêu thị và trung tâm mua sắm. Trong khi trung tâm mua sắm và phân khúc siêu thị / siêu thị là tăng trưởng với tốc độ dần dần và ổn định, với CAGR lần lượt là 4,7% (2013-16) và 6,2% (2013-17), phân khúc chuỗi cửa hàng tiện lợi đang bùng nổ mạnh mẽ trong những năm gần đây, với CAGR nổi bật là 66,2% từ Năm 2014 đến 2017.... ---
  • 1. PhotobyOlegMagnifromPexels This project is co-funded by the European Union RESEARCH REPORT VIETNAM’SDISTRIBUTION AND RETAILCHANNELS Edition 2018
  • 2. EVBN The Retail Channels in Vietnam 2 USEFUL CONTACTS MORE INFORMATION EU-Vietnam Business Network (EVBN) 15th Floor, 5B Ton Duc Thang, District 1 Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam T: +84 (0)28 38239515 The Landmark, 15th floor, 5B Ton Duc Thang St., District 1, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam Tel. +84 (0)28 3823 9515 Fax +84 (0)28 3823 9514 This publication was produced with the assistance of the European Union. The content of this publication is the sole responsibility of EVBN and can in no way be taken to reflect the views of the European Union. General Statistics Office of Vietnam: Vietnam Customs Statistics: Vietnam Trade Promotion Agency (Vietrade):
  • 3. EVBN The Retail Channels in Vietnam 3 Contents List of Abbreviations Currency Exchange List of figures Executive Summary Chapter 1: Vietnam Overview Geo-demographics Vietnam’s Economy Structure of consumption expenditures Chapter 2: Vietnam’s Retail Sector Overview of the Retail Market in Vietnam Market size Structure of Vietnam’s retail sector Franchising Market trends Market drivers Opportunities and challenges Chapter 3: Competitive Landscape Traditional market Convenience store Supermarket and Hypermarket Shopping centre Chapter 4: Profile of End Consumer and Distribution Channels Profile of end consumer Distribution channels Summary List of Trade Fairs and Exhibitions Main Online and Printed Publications Useful Contacts References Chapter 5: Regulatory and Legal Framework Regulatory and Legal Framework for investors in the Retail sector Relevance and impact of EVFTA Regulatory and Legal Framework for franchising activities 3 4 4 5 6 8 10 12 36 37 40 41 42 44 45 46 47 48 29 29 31 32 14 14 15 19 24 26 27 CONTENTS
  • 4. EVBN The Retail Channels in Vietnam 4 ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate CIT Corporate Income Tax CVS Convenience store DOIT Department of Industry and Trade ENT Economic Needs Testing EU European Union EVFTA EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement FDI Foreign Direct Investment FIE Foreign-invested enterprise FMCG Fast-moving consumer goods FOE Foreign Owned Enterprise FTA Free Trade Agreement GDP Gross Domestic Product GRDI Global Retail Development Index GT Traditional grocery store H1 First Half of Financial Year HCMC Ho Chi Minh City MOIT Ministry of Industry and Trade POS Point-of-Sale SOE State Owned Enterprise VAT Value Added Tax WTO World Trade Organisation EUR/US$ 0.81 EUR/VND 27,998.64 EUR/YEN 132.53 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS CURRENCY EXCHANGE
  • 5. EVBN The Retail Channels in Vietnam 5 Figure 1: Map of Vietnam with key cities 8 Figure 2: Vietnam’s population 2013-20f 9 Figure 3: Forecast of rural and urban population in Vietnam and Asia Pacific, 2030 9 Figure 4: Nominal GDP and Real GDP growth, 2013-20f 10 Figure 5: Nominal GDP per capita, 2013-20f 10 Figure 6: Total registered FDI capital, 2010-2017 11 Figure 7: Total registered FDI capital by provinces, 2017 11 Figure 8: Structure of consumption expenditure, 2013-22f 12 Figure 9: 2017 Global Retail Development Index 14 Figure 10: Vietnam’s retail value, 2013-20f 15 Figure 11: Structure of retail market in Vietnam 15 Figure 12: Value contribution of retail channels in Vietnam, 2015-20f 16 Figure 13: Number of traditional markets in Vietnam, 2013-16 16 Figure 14: Number of supermarkets and hypermarkets in Vietnam, 2013-16 17 Figure 15: Number of shopping centres in Vietnam, 2013-17 18 Figure 16: Number of convenience stores in Vietnam, 2014-20 18 Figure 17: List of key domestic franchisees in Vietnam 20 Figure 18: List of key franchised brands in Vietnam 21 Figure 19: Maison JSC’s logo and online homepage 22 Figure 20: List of some current EU fashion brands distributed by Maison JSC 23 Figure 21: Maison JSC’s Timeline 23 Figure 22: Key convenience stores chains in Vietnam and their operations 29 Figure 23: Distribution of stores of key convenience store chains as of February 2017 30 Figure 24: Key supermarkets/hypermarkets in Vietnam and their operations 31 Figure 25: Key shopping centres in Vietnam and their operations 32 Figure 26: Takashimaya online shopping homepage and Takashimaya Ho Chi Minh 33 Figure 27: Percentage of share value in retail channels 36 Figure 28: Distribution structure of imported products in Vietnam 37 Figure 29: Key retail chains and their purchasing type 38 Figure 30: Economic Needs Testing Timeline 40 Figure 31: Franchise registration timeline 42 LIST OF FIGURES
  • 6. Vietnam is considered one of the region’s most attractive markets for foreign investors with a steadily increasing GDP and booming foreign direct investment, a pattern that is forecasted to remain stable in the upcoming years. Nominal GDP in 2018 is estimated to reach €208.1 billion, recording a nominal y-o-y growth rate of 6.7%. The country’s nominal GDP is forecasted to attain €248.8 billion in 2020. Since Vietnam joined the WTO and allowed 100% foreign-owned retailers, the country’s retail market has become increasingly lucrative. Traditional retail will remain Vietnam’s dominant retail channel in the near future, currently accounting for 68% of the retail market. However, the country is witnessing a shift from traditional retail to modern retailers such as convenience stores, supermarkets/hypermarkets, and shopping centres. While the shopping centre and the supermarket/hypermarket segments are growing at a gradual and steady pace, with a CAGR of 4.7% (2013-16) and 6.2% (2013-17) respectively, the convenience stores chain segment is vigorously booming in the recent years, with an outstanding CAGR of 66.2% from 2014 to 2017. With Vietnam’s increasing effort to open up its trade policies and its strong participation in FTA agreements, including the EVFTA agreement, the market is just at the beginning stage of its development and offers numerous opportunities for investors. Some investors choose to enter the Vietnamese market though franchising, especially in the F&B industry. With an increasing income per household, Vietnamese people spend more on the F&B goods and services. In addition, with an increasing fondness for Western products and concern for health, in addition to clearer government requirements, franchising is expected to grow steadily in the next few years. First, this report will look at the potential for growth of Vietnam’s retail market over the next five years focusing on four segments: traditional retail, convenience store chains, supermarkets/hypermarkets, and shopping centres. It will also provide an overview on Vietnam’s current franchising landscape, and assess what impact the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) has had on the industry. Executive Summary
  • 7. CHAPTER 1 VIETNAM OVERVIEW Geo-demographics Vietnam’s Economy Structure of consumption expenditures
  • 8. EVBN The Retail Channels in Vietnam 8 Hanoi Da Nang Ho Chi Minh City Can Tho Nha Trang I. Geo-demographics Vietnam comprises a landmass of 330,972.4 km2, a vast sea area including a large continental shelf and a string of archipelagos stretching from the Gulf of Tonkin in the North to the Gulf of Thailand in the South. In 2017, Vietnam’s population was 95.54 million people and is projected to reach 98.4 million in 2020, an increase of 1% on average between 2015-2020. MajorcitiesinVietnam,namelyHanoi,HaiPhong, Danang, Nha Trang, Ho Chi Minh City, and Can Tho, are well-dispersed geographically. Hanoi, the capital of Vietnam, is the second largest city in Vietnam and is the country’s political and administrative centre. Hanoi is known for its rich culture characterised by South East Asian, Chinese and French influences. Ho Chi Minh City, commonly known as Saigon, is the country’s largest city and the commercial hub of Vietnam. By 2030, Ho Chi Minh City will continue to be the largest city in Vietnam by population with over 10 million inhabitants accounting for 23% of Vietnam’s total urban population. Figure 1: Map of Vietnam with key cities
  • 9. EVBN The Retail Channels in Vietnam 9 AlthoughVietnamremainspredominantly rural, it is expected to undergo significant urbanisation in the next 14 years. By 2030, the urban population is forecasted to increase by 37% from 2017, reaching 45.66 million people, or 43% of the total population of Vietnam. This rapid urbanisation is caused predominantly by the growth of urban cities and the expansion of the urban-based industrial and services sectors. Moreover, high urbanisation rate causes a pressure on the construction sector to increase the number of high-rise apartment buildings and office buildings. 2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 91.50 92.54 93.57 94.57 95.54 96.49 97.43 98.36 Figure 2: Vietnam's population 2013-20f Source: D&B Figure 3: Forecast of rural and urban population in Vietnam and Asia Pacific, 2030 Source:UNDP *Unit:millionpeople 44%RURAL 56% URBAN Asia Pacific Vietnam 57%RURAL 43% URBAN
  • 10. EVBN The Retail Channels in Vietnam 10 II. Vietnam’s Economy Gross Domestic Product In 2017, Vietnam’s nominal GDP per capita reached €2,029, an increase of 5.4% compared to 2016. Nonetheless, the country has been recognised for its effort to increase the GDP per capita, and expects to reach a GDP per capita of €2,529 in 2020. A solid increase in GDP per capita suggests that an average Vietnamese will have more disposable income to spend on more goods than just basic needs. 0 50 100 150 200 250 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2020f2019f2018e20172016201520142013 128.4 5.4 6.0 6.7 6.2 6.8 6.7 140.0 172.5 182.0 193.9 208.1 228.6 248.8 (€bn) (%) Nominal GDP (EUR bn) Real GDP growth (%) Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to accelerate at 6.7% in 2018, reaching €208.1 billion in value. With this growth rate, Vietnam remains one of the fastest-growing economies in Asia. The solid increase pace is foreseen to continue until 2020, to reach €248.8 billion. The outlook is underpinned by ongoing Government policies regarding the privatisation of state-owned enterprises (SOEs), the maintenance of price stability, the lowering of trade barriers and reduced tax rates. 0 500 1000 1500 1,403 1,512 1,843 1,924 2,029 2,156 2,346 2,529 2000 2500 3000 2020f2019f2018e20172016201520142013 (€) Figure 4: Nominal GDP and Real GDP growth, 2013-20f Source: BMI Figure 5: Nominal GDP per capita, 2013-20f Source: BMI
  • 11. EVBN The Retail Channels in Vietnam 11 In 2017, Vietnam received a record €24 billion of foreign direct investment (FDI). This is a reflection of the increase in trade and production in Vietnam as more global manufacturing giants have decided to move their production facilities to Vietnam to reap the benefits from the numerous incentives to attract investments from the government. Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam’s commercial centre, continued to receive the most FDI in 2017 with a total registered capital of nearly EUR 2.7 billion. Provinces such as Binh Duong and Bac Ninh, where LG and Samsung established their manufacturing centres, also received large amounts of FDI at EUR 2.0 and EUR 2.6 billion, respectively. Thanh Hoa and Khanh Hoa are two provinces receiving the highest number of newly registered capital, respectively, due to mega Build – Operate – Transfer Japan’s thermal power projects. Foreign Direct Investment 20172016201520142013201220112010 15,066 11,904 10,530 17,577 16,378 18,436 19,761 24,041 (€ mn) Other Binh Duong Khanh Hoa Thanh Hoa Bac Ninh Ho Chi Minh City 2,684.4 2,640.6 2,563.8 2,104.7 2,003.5 12,054.1 (Unit: EUR mn) Figure 6: Total registered FDI capital, 2010-2017 Source: GSO Figure 7: Total registered FDI capital by provinces, 2017 Source: GSO
  • 12. EVBN The Retail Channels in Vietnam 12 III. Structure of consumption expenditures With this GDP growth and increase in disposable income, consumption expenditure is expected to grow at a rate of 9% during 2016-22f. The increase in the standard of living will likely also raise the price and the quality of goods purchased by Vietnamese consumers. 20142013 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Other Leisure & education Transport & communications Health spending Furnishing and home Housing and utilities Clothing & footwear Food, beverages & tobacco 624 669 715 754 815 883 967 212 228 244 258 279 303 332 365 401 441 515 551 588 618 667 721 787 862 944 69 74 79 84 91 98 108 118 130 143 149 160 171 180 195 211 231 253 277 305 396 422 450 472 508 548 598 653 714 782 74 80 85 90 97 105 114 125 137 151 588 629 671 706 761 823 899 984 0 EURperyearperhousehold 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 1,060 1,163 1,278 1,035 1,078 1,183 Figure 8: Structure of consumption expenditure, 2013-22f Source: BMI
  • 13. CHAPTER 2 VIETNAM RETAIL SECTOR Overview of the Retail Market in Vietnam Market trends Market drivers Opportunities and challenges
  • 14. EVBN The Retail Channels in Vietnam 14 I. Overview of the Retail Market in Vietnam Vietnam’s retail sector is booming. In 2017, the country ranked sixth in the Global Retail Development Index (GRDI), up five ranks from the previous year. Within the ASEAN region, Vietnam is the market with the second highest index (after Malaysia). With a relatively small size and a retail market attractiveness index of 26.7, Vietnam is considered a prime market with low saturation. 1. Market size GRDI 2017 Ranking 2017 GRDI score Market attractiveness Market saturation Time pressure National retail sales (in EUR billion) Malaysia 4 60.9 77.1 23.3 56.2 95.0 Vietnam 6 56.1 26.7 72.4 100 104.9 Indonesia 8 55.9 49.3 52.1 76.7 432.1 Philippines 18 48.4 33.2 39.9 73.5 94.9 Thailand 30 47.8 47.4 5.8 47.8 146.9 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 Countryrisk(economicandpolitical) (0=highrisk,100=lowrisk) Country Potential (0= low potential, 100 = high potential) Thailand Philippines Malaysia Indonesia Remark: Size of the bubble indicates national retail sales. Country potential is a weighted score of market attractiveness, market saturation and time pressure. Figure 9: 2017 Global Retail Development Index Source: A.T. Kearney, Statistical Office from ASEAN countries
  • 15. EVBN The Retail Channels in Vietnam 15 Vietnam’s retail value reached EUR104.9 billion in 2017, a 9.7% increase from the previous year. This growth has been consistent over several years and is expected to keep accelerating at a 10.3% growth rate per annum until 2020 when the retail market is anticipated to reach EUR140.7 billion. Multinational retailers such as Lotte, Big C, Aeon, Circle K, and 7-Eleven are taking advantage of Vietnam’s emerging retail market and have already established their footprints. Their presence in Vietnam creates more competition for domestic retailers, while diversifying the offering for Vietnamese consumers whose disposable income is increasing and whose taste for foreign brands is expanding.Wewillexploreinmoredetails the profile and competitive landscape of those key players in Chapter 4. The retail industry in Vietnam comprises three main channels: traditional, modern and online. The characteristics of the online retail channel will not be discussed here since there is a dedicated report on the topic, available for download on the EVBN website. We will discuss below Vietnam’s traditional and modern retail channels. 2. Structure of Vietnam’s retail sector 0 30 60 90 120 150 Unit: EUR billion 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2020f 70.2 78.2 85.9 95.3 104.9 140.7 TRADITIONAL RETAIL Wet markets Grocery stores R E T A I L I N D U S T R YR E T A I L I N D U S T R Y Hypermarkets Supermarkets Department stores/ Shopping Centers Convenience Specialty Stores E-commerce MODERN RETAIL ONLINE RETAIL Figure 10: Vietnam's retail value, 2013-20f Source: GSO Figure 11: Structure of retail market in Vietnam Source: Speeda
  • 16. EVBN The Retail Channels in Vietnam 16 Wet markets and grocery stores remain the most common retail channels as Vietnamese consumers still rely on these outlets to make their day-to-day purchases. Nevertheless, modern retail is gaining popularity, especially in urban cities such as Hanoi or Ho Chi Minh City. The value contribution of the modern retail channels has been increasing in recent years, and according to the Ministry of Trade, may account for up to 45% of the total sector value by 2020. The traditional retail sector, i.e., wet markets and grocery stores, is well integrated into the daily life of Vietnamese consumers. Since fresh ingredients are central to the local cuisine, Vietnamese consumers still satisfy their everyday needs at these traditional retail venues because of their convenience and their competitive prices. Although the traditional retail sector has the largest market share, this channel enjoys a modest growth since the number of outlets has remained stable in the last few years with around 8,500 wet markets and 1.3 million grocery stores. This is due to the increasing presence of modern retail stores as well as changes in consumer behaviour. As income per capita increases, Vietnamese consumers become less price sensitive and, especially in urban areas, more willing to pay a premium for a pleasant décor and a wider variety of products. $ 55% 55% 68% 75% 32% 45% 25% Traditional retail Modern retail Remark: Inner circle: 2015 Middle circle: 2017 Outer circle: 2020 TRADITIONAL RETAIL 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 2013 8,546 8,568 8,660 8,513 2014 2015 2016 CAGR 2013-16 = -0.1% Figure 12: Value contribution of retail channels in Vietnam, 2015-20f Source: Speeda, Ministry of Trade Figure 13: Number of traditional markets in Vietnam, 2013-16 Source: GSO
  • 17. EVBN The Retail Channels in Vietnam 17 The modern retail sector has seen significant developments in recent years, with the value contribution of this channel expected to account for 45% of the total retail value by 2020. Currently, modern retailers are concentrated in urban cities such as Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. However, the penetration of modern retailers is expected to continue as both foreign and domestic companies have plans to expand their coverage in Vietnam. In 2016,Vietnam had nearly 870 supermarkets and hypermarketsconcentratedmostlyinHoChiMinh City and Hanoi. This figure is forecasted to exceed 1,200 by 2020 due to increased urbanisation and the adoption of modern retail outlets as a one- stop shops for commodities. Supermarkets and hypermarkets carry a wide range of products, with groceries, food, and beverages accounting for the majority of the items. Imported products are more common in response to the higher demand for foreign products and the increasing number of expatriates and tourists in Vietnam. The major challenges for supermarkets/ hypermarkets in Vietnam are the high rents and the administrative red tape. Land and properties are owned by the Vietnamese government who charges high rents, especially in the central business districts of major cities. Statistics show that supermarkets can takes more than five years to breakeven in Vietnam, twice the time needed in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore. SUPERMARKETS AND HYPERMARKETS MODERN RETAIL 0 200 400 600 800 1000 2013 2014 2015 2016 CAGR 2013-16 = 4.7% 724 762 812 869 Figure 14: Number of supermarkets and hypermarkets in Vietnam, 2013-16 Source: GSO
  • 18. EVBN The Retail Channels in Vietnam 18 The number of shopping centres is on the rise and is forecasted to reach over 300 centres in 2020. Located mostly in major cities, shopping centres house renowned international brands. These centres have changed their model from department stores to shopping malls in resp
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