Gamal Siamã 2016 IFPRI Egypt Seminar Series: Role of Agriculture in Food and Nutrition Security in Egypt

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  1. IFPRI Egypt Seminar : Improving Nutrition in Egypt: What is the Role of Agriculture and How do we Document Impact? ROLE OF AGRICULTURE IN FOOD AND…
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  • 1. IFPRI Egypt Seminar : "Improving Nutrition in Egypt: What is the Role of Agriculture and How do we Document Impact?" ROLE OF AGRICULTURE IN FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN EGYPT Gamal Siam 16, November 2016
  • 2. Main points  Contribution of agriculture to the Egyptian economy  Population/agricultural resources in Egypt  Food and nutrition insecurity as a driver for social vulnerability  Constraints of agricultural and food policy  Egypt’s food markets: bottlenecks, regulations, and food safety  Towards right agricultural and food policy
  • 3. Contribution of agriculture to the Egyptian economy • Contributes to GDP : 13 % • Shares in national labor force : 27% • Ag. Exports as % of national exports : 15% • Produces 60 % of Egypt food needs in average: 55% of wheat, 65% of maize, 70% of sugar, 10% of ed. oil, 80% of meat • Generates income for 40% of population
  • 4. Population/agricultural resources in Egypt Total population (mn,2015) 92 Agricultural land (feddan) 8.5 Agricultural population (mn) 36 (40% of Eg.pop) Nile water (bn cub.m) 55.5 16(bn cub.m)Other water resources No. of farmers (mn) 5 Average farm size (feddan) 1.7 Holdings less than 3 feddans 80% of total no. of holdings Women-headed farm households 20% of total no. of holdings Per capita Land (fed.) 0.09 Under WPL))Water (cub.m/year ) 603
  • 5. Evolution of per capita land and water 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 ‫السنوات‬ 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 ً ‫المياه‬‫من‬‫الفرد‬‫حصة‬(‫م‬3) ‫الزراعية‬‫االرض‬‫من‬‫الفرد‬‫حصة‬(‫فدان‬)
  • 6. Food and nutrition insecurity as a driver for social vulnerability  Social vulnerability is derived from a large number of physical and socio-economic risks among which is food and nutrition insecurity :  Food and nutrition insecurity  Poverty  Climate change  Vulnerability to natural disasters,  Water scarcity,  Conflict,  Policy and political instability risks.  Interactions between drivers result in a multiplier effect on social vulnerability.
  • 7. Food and nutrition insecurity as a driver for social vulnerability (cont’d)  Affordability to food and poverty are affected by price policies.  Poverty, hunger and water stress are intrinsically linked.  Low income households spend the largest share of their income on food, which makes them more vulnerable to food price instability
  • 8. Drivers of Social Vulnerability Food Insecurity Water Insecurity Climate Change & Vulnerability to natural disasters Poverty Conflict Inequalities Politics & Policies Source: Gamal Siam, 2016
  • 9.  Agriculture and Food sector has been marginalized in terms of :  public investments  R & D and  Institutions. • Non-targeted subsidy for consumers proved to be ineffective because of the mismanagement and significant portion of it goes to non-needy people .
  • 10. Reasons behind weak performance of agricultural sector Agricultural investment • Share of agriculture in public expenditure : 2% • Weak investment climate • Weak rural infrastructure • New lands Problems of desert land Do not contribute much to food security Produce much of F& V of which 40 % is lost Significant part of land and ground water diverted away from agricultural production
  • 11. Reasons behind weak performance of agricultural sector (Cont’d) Lack of technology  Share of agricultural R&D in AGDP nearly nil Budget allocated to Agricultural Research Center L.E 3 million Budget allocated to Desert Research Center L.E 4 million Budget allocated to Water Research Center L.E 5 million Total R&D budget: L.E 12 million  Lack of agricultural extension services
  • 12. Reasons behind weak performance of agricultural sector (Cont’d) Lack of agricultural institutions  Farmers organizations  Laws and legislations  Markets failure Output markets Input markets  Ag policies Wheat price policy Rice policy
  • 13. Egypt’s food markets: bottlenecks, regulations, and food safety • In Egypt , the food production side is dominated by small-scale producers with limited capacity of production. • In the absence of market regulations and lack of information and weak producer institutions, they are usually exploited by big traders. • There are many of bottlenecks in the supply chains of most of food commodities particularly with the lack of marketing services and post-harvest processing /transport/warehousing/distribution infrastructure, food labeling, food safety measures.
  • 14. Egypt’s food markets: bottlenecks, regulations, and food safety (Cont’d) • In the supply chain of food commodities, farmers obtain a little share in the consumer price because of market imperfections, where traders and distributers gain the largest share. • Traders do have stronger organizations compared to both producers and consumers. • Producers are many and the majority are small and have very weak organizations.
  • 15. Egypt’s food markets: bottlenecks, regulations, and food safety (Cont’d) • Furthermore, the role of governments is weak concerning the food safety and hygiene. • These circumstances result in market failure with high transaction costs, low quality and less diversified goods available, high consumer prices, lack of access and nutritional quality. • However, big supermarkets and retail stores are now spreading widely in the urban centers and big cities. They offer high quality diversified food affordable to high income consumers.
  • 16. Lack of ag.investment Weak Ag. Institutional settings Lack of expenditure on R&D and Advisory Services •Irrigation system •Infrastructure •Public Services Climate change Unutilized and Underutilized Resources Agricultural and food production: low performance Low Yields (Yield Gap) External Shocks and global changes : ( Global Market Fluctuations , oil & Energy prices , Bio fuel Production , Global Competition pressure , Global Crises , Political Manipulation , Multi-national Corporation ) Technological gap Shortage of Inputs Low –quality Inputs Inefficient ag.practices Lack of international technology transfer Source: Gamal Siam, 2016
  • 17. . Production curve Economic 80% of farmers Non- economic Factor production Production Fragmented agriculture and efficiency
  • 18. The right food policy  What are the elements of the right agricultural and food policy ? Targets :  Improve food production  Enhance farm household income  Improve affordability  Improve nutrition Elements/instruments :  Institutions  Innovation (R&D)  Advisory services  Investment climate  Contracting agriculture  Consolidation of landholdings
  • 19. 1. Institutional Reform  Institutions: legislations, organizations and policies  Reforming and development of the institutional and legislative structure governing agricultural sector  Appropriate agricultural policies  Agricultural laws  Government organizations and public services  Farmers organizations : cooperatives, associations and unions  Civil society organizations related to agriculture  Decentralization and partnership  Collective action
  • 20. 2.Innovation: capacity for R&D and technological upgrading • Improved extension services plays a significant role in raising yields through adoption of new technologies and good agricultural practices • Sharp increase in expenditure allocated for R&D must be at the top of the policy agenda. • Facilitate international transfers of agricultural technology
  • 21. 3.Extension services • Improved extension services play significant role in raising yields through adoption of new technologies and good agricultural practices • Extension services are out of reach for many small farmers who constitute more than 80% in Egypt • Small farmers can not afford the cost of extension services ,while large farmers can
  • 22. 4. Agricultural Investment and Finance • The share of agriculture in the public investment should be increased to 10% from (3%) • Farmers access to finance should be improved to facilitate use of quality inputs at the right time • Support the creation of insurance schemes and improved instruments to manage risk
  • 23. 5. Promote contracting agriculture • Contracting agriculture is an effective instrument for overcoming land fragmentation problem and commercializing agriculture • Contracting agriculture could be promoted through farmer training or education • Judicial system should be strengthened
  • 24. 6. Consolidation of land holdings • Alternative mitigation solutions encouraging collective farming, through: 1.agricultural cooperatives; 2. agri- business integration and contract farming farmer groups agree to aggregate their adjacent land parcels for a given season and plant the same crop benefiting from linkages to private sector enterprises for value addition.
  • 25. Future water deficit and implications for the food situation • Year Pop1 WNAU2 WA3 w.p.c.4 Ag.A5 2015 92 18.4 37.1 603 8.5 2030 118 23.6 31.9 470 7.3 2050 156 31.2 24.3 355 5.3 2100 300 60.0 (4.5) 185 (1.0)  Food situation will be worsened with increasing population pressure on increasing water scarcity  Climate change and Ethiopian Dam will exacerbate food gap in the future 1. Pop.: Population 2. WNAU: Water for non-agricultural use 3. WA: Water available for agriculture 4. w.p.c: Water per capita 5. Ag. A: Agricultural (Cultivated) area
  • 26. Thank you
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