Derek Headyã 2016 IFPRI Egypt Seminar Series: Measuring and Monitoring SDGs in Egypt

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  1. 1 Measuring Food and Nutrition Security in Egypt Derek Headey Senior Research Fellow Poverty, Health and Nutrition Division International Food Policy Research…
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  • 1. 1 Measuring Food and Nutrition Security in Egypt Derek Headey Senior Research Fellow Poverty, Health and Nutrition Division International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) d.headey@cgiar.org
  • 2. Will draw on several recent publications: • Headey D, Ecker O. 2013. Rethinking the Measurement of Food Security: From First Principles to Best Practice. Food Security. 5, 327–43. • Headey, D., 2013. The Impact of the Global Food Crisis on Self-Assessed Food Security. World Bank Economic Review 27, 1-27. • Barrett, C.B., Headey, D.D., 2014. A Proposal for Measuring Resilience in a Risky World, in: Fan, S., Pandya-Lorch, R., Yosef, S. (Eds.), Resilience for Food and Nutrition Security. IFPRI, Washington DC. (short version published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences)
  • 3. 1.1 By 2030, eradicate $1.25/day poverty 1.2 By 2030, reduce “national” poverty by ½ 1.3 Social protection systems 1.4 By 2030, build the resilience of the poor 2.1 By 2030, end hunger; access to safe, nutritious and sufficient food all year round 2.2 By 2030, end all forms of malnutrition, (40% reduction in pre-schooler stunting and wasting) 2.3 & 2.4 Productive and sustainable food systems SOME RELEVANT SDG TARGETS
  • 4. • Measuring poverty, food security, undernutrition and resilience is very challenging, potentially very expensive, but potentially very beneficial “Measurement drives diagnosis and response.” Barrett (2010; pp. 827) • No coincidence that some of best national success stories have invested the most in measurement:  Bangladesh: nutrition surveillance system, 1990-present  Peru: continuous (annual) Demographic Health Survey BACKGROUND
  • 5. • Here I want to pose two questions: 1. What do we need to measure? 2. What sort of measurement systems need to be in place to cost-effectively measure what we want to measure? • Caveats  Answers to these questions are partially contextual, and partly based on good principles, good empirical science, and historical experience  I am not an Egyptologist , so I am really talking about good principles and best international practice BACKGROUND
  • 6. • Some of the many issues cited in Egypt SSP Working Paper #1: 1. Slow and non-inclusive economic growth, unemployment, inflation, low productivity 2. Fragmented social protection systems 3. Water & land constraints (less sensitive to weather) 4. Dual burden of under- and over-nutrition 5. Poor quality data • Important to align these information targets to survey instruments BACKGROUND
  • 7. • “Food security is … when all people, at all times, have physical, social & economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food …” -FAO (1996) • “Development resilience is the capacity over time … to avoid poverty in the face of various stressors and in the wake of myriad shocks. If and only if that capacity is and remains high over time, then the unit is resilient.” -Barrett and Konstas (2015) • e.g. You may be non-poor now, but are you resilient to a 50% increase in wheat prices, a 12- month spell of unemployment, a failed cotton crop, etc ? CONCEPTS & PRINCIPLES
  • 8. CONCEPTS & PRINCIPLES Concept Principles All people -Subnationally representative surveys -Measure individuals not just households -Additional focus on vulnerable populations? All times -Measurement at sufficiently high frequency -Use economic models to “stress-test” resilience of key sub-populations Sufficient, safe & nutritious food -Focus on dietary quality, not just calories -Focus on nutrition outcomes -Food safety & disease environment Psychological, social, political -Psychological indicators of food security arguably important in their own right
  • 9. • Concepts and table above tells us we need a menu of food security, resilience and nutrition indicators to meet the different principles set out in these definitions • Moreover, different indicators have different strengths and weaknesses • In the last 20 years there has been huge expansion of food security and nutrition indicators • This is a good thing, but there is no significant consensus on which indicators can serve which functions • Headey and Ecker (2013) provides some quite critical review of these indicators WHAT TO MEASURE?
  • 10. WHAT TO MEASURE? Indicator types Strengths and Weaknesses Calories (“hunger”) (e.g. FAO, or survey- based calories per adult equivalent) -Conceptually close to basic hunger concept -Typically measured at household level, not children/mothers -Not always closely associated with nutrition outcomes -Not obviously sensitive to shocks (e.g. 1998 Indonesian crisis) -Measured infrequently or expensively Monetary poverty (e.g. $1.25/day) -Typically measured at household level not child/mother -Undernourished children found in poor households -Measured infrequently or expensively Dietary diversity (e.g. 0-7 food groups in last 24 hrs) -Measured for individuals cheaply, but no universal thresholds -Coarse food groups not food quantities -Related to knowledge, not just poverty or food insecurity -Potential sensitive to shocks Experiential indicators (e.g. HFIAS) -Measured for households or adults cheaply (not children) -Subjectivity invalidates inter-personal & inter-temporal validity? -Sensitivity to phrasing, placement in survey, response biases Nutrition outcomes (e.g. stunting, anemia) -Measured for individuals -Affected by many non-food determinants -Indicators either too broad (stunting) or too narrow (anemia)
  • 11. WHAT TO MEASURE? • All indicators face some common problems, such as neglect of seasonality Good news is more attention being paid to “best practice”:  Ruel et al. review experience with dietary diversity indicators through a nutritional lens  Headey & Ecker (2013) and World Bank paper focus on food security properties of dietary diversity indicators  World Bank LSMS team has made major inroads on improving poverty and expenditure measurement  FAO, USDA, Gallup “Voices of the Poor” project on use of experiential indicators
  • 12. WHAT TO MEASURE? • But international experience is only a rough guide for how an indicator will work in any given context. Why? Cultural factors influence intrahousehold distribution Cultural factors strongly influence experiential indicators Dietary diversity indicators to predict nutrient adequacy or food security is highly context specific • Need for context-specific experimentation and validation • Still need to focus on a range of indicators • I would emphasize more attention for dietary diversity: Cheap, Nutritionally Important, Sensitive to Shocks
  • 13. MEASUREMENT SYSTEMS • “Measurement systems” refers to the broader strategy for collecting the requisite indicators • It includes questions such as: 1. Which surveys will measure which indicators? 2. Who will be responsible for different surveys? 3. How often will different surveys be conducted? 4. At what level of aggregation will surveys be representative at? 5. How can surveys be designed to be more cost-effective? • These are practical questions, but researchers should start getting involved in searching for the answers
  • 14. MEASUREMENT SYSTEMS • In Egypt, as in most countries, there are many different surveys being conducted for different purposes • Important to make sure that the system as a whole adheres to the principles flagged above Concept Principles All people -Subnationally representative surveys -Measure individuals not just households -Additional focus on vulnerable populations? All times -Measurement at sufficiently high frequency -Use economic models to “stress-test” resilience of key sub- populations Sufficient, safe & nutritious food -Focus on dietary quality, not just calories -Focus on nutrition outcomes -Food safety & disease environment Psychological, social, political -Psychological indicators of food security arguably important in their own right
  • 15. MEASUREMENT SYSTEMS • One major flaw is lack of high frequency data: • Big problem for monitoring resilience and food security in the wake of both expected and unexpected shocks • Big problem for evaluating efficacy of safety net programs Some potential innovations for higher frequency surveys:  Nutrition surveillance system as in Bangladesh (several times per year for a cost of about USD 1m/year).  Mix thick rounds (all data) with cheaper thin rounds (selected indicators likely to vary more over time)  Continuous DHS, as in Peru
  • 16. • Thanks for listening, and I’m happy to answer questions or receive follow-up emails: d.headey@cgiar.org
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