Com os prazos do Brexit se esgotando, que escolhas restam ao Reino Unido fazer e quais as suas consequências? - Michael Leigh

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  Em junho de 2016, por estreita margem, os eleitores britânicos e da Irlanda do Norte aprovaram a saída do Reino Unido da União Europeia. No mês seguinte, em campanha que a levaria a ser líder do Partido Conservador e primeira ministra, Thereza May afirmou: Brexit means Brexit, indicando a disposição de cumprir o desejo expresso pela maioria naquele referendo. Não obstante, três anos depois, com um novo primeiro ministro recém escolhido, ainda não se sabe como o Reino Unido deixará a União Europeia. Depois de dois adiamentos, a União Europeia estabeleceu uma data definitiva para o Brexit, com ou sem acordo: 31 de outubro. Mas nem mesmo esse prazo é uma certeza absoluta. Nem sequer um novo referendo, embora remoto, pode ser descartado. Em meio a tantas incertezas, que cenários de médio e longo prazo se podem vislumbrar para o Reino Unido? Que efeitos terão para a União Europeia e o mundo, incluindo o Brasil? Para responder a essas perguntas, a Fundação FHC receberá Sir. Michael Leigh, cidadão britânico que ocupou posições de destaque na direção da política externa da União Europeia. MICHAEL LEIGH Cientista político, foi diretor-geral da Comissão Europeia (órgão executivo da União Europeia), onde trabalhou por mais de 25 anos. Desde que deixou o cargo, tem realizado palestras e escrito sobre o futuro da Europa como membro sênior do German Marshall Fund dos Estados Unidos e professor adjunto sênior da Escola de Estudos Internacionais Avançados da Universidade Johns Hopkins. É PhD em ciência política pelo Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
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  • 1. Brexit and the future of Europe
  • 2. Today’s discussion Brexit Scenarios for the “future of Europe” EU-Mercosur Agreement (Q/A)
  • 3. Explanations for Brexit British insularity and exceptionalism
  • 4. Leadership failures • David Cameron’s disastrous decision • Theresa May’s bungled negotiations • Jeremy Corbyn’s ambiguities This -NC-ND
  • 5. Defective democracy? • Referendum campaign • Ill-informed • Lies and distortions • Poorly led • Financial abuses • Referendum • Under 52% voted leave • Just 37% of eligible electorate • No threshold • No super-majority • Restricted franchise
  • 6. Populism and English nationalism
  • 7. Polarization of Society
  • 8. Brexit outcomes 1. Britain leaves on 31 October with agreement 2. Britain leaves on 31 October with no agreement 3. Brexit postponed (again) • Election? • Renegotiation? • Referendum? • Revocation? 5% 60% 35%
  • 9. Brexit impact Two “unions” affected • The United Kingdom • The European Union
  • 10. Three scenarios for EU’s future after Brexit 1. Relaunch 2. Disintegration 3. Consolidation
  • 11. Scenario (1) Relaunch Main advocate
  • 12. Bolster Euro “Europe that protects” Asylum and border protection Defend democracy
  • 13. Supported by…. New EU leadership
  • 14. Opposed by • Matteo Salvini (Italy) • Marine Le Pen (France) • Nigel Farage (UK) • Viktor Orbán (Hungary) • Jarosław Kaczyński (Poland) • Andrej Babiš (Czech Republic) • Geert Wilders (Netherlands) • ….numerous
  • 15. Scenario 2 Disintegration • Academics • Think-tankers • EU critics • Public opinion • “the EU could collapse in the next 20 years” (recent poll)
  • 16. The EU is sleep walking into oblivion
  • 17. Scenario (2) Disintegration Core achievements at risk • Euro • Open internal borders (“Schengen) EU legitimacy questioned • Rise of nationalism and Euroscepticism • Decline of multilateralism
  • 18. Scenario (2) Disintegration • No grand initiatives or treaties • Federal approach abandoned • Confrontational groups of members • Interference by Russia, China and others (?) • No new enlargement • Brexit challenges “irreversibility” of European integration
  • 19. Scenario (3) Consolidation Neither relaunch nor collapse Hold on to what we’ve got Small incremental steps Cooperation not integration
  • 20. Scenario (3) consolidation Modest eurozone budget Better control of external borders Climate goals Anti-trust Unified capital markets Data protection Science and research Trade
  • 21. So what next in Europe? • Political fragmentation • End of Merkel era • Instability (Italy, Spain…) • Authoritarian drift in central Europe • Will Macron reforms succeed? • Will EU prove resilient? • Will new EU leaders rise to the challenge?
  • 22. EU - Mercosur An opportunity A challenge
  • 23. Scenario (3) Consolidation EU-Mercosur 20 year negotiation • Region-to-region • Current trade $100b goods $38b services • Should benefit • EU machinery, electronic equipment, chemicals, services, motor vehicles, wine, cheese, olive oil • Mercosur light manufactures and agriculture • But must be signed and ratified • Concerns in EU about environment and agriculture • Argentine elections (?)
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